Here’s what we know:

The world gets about 20% of its oil via the Strait of Hormuz.  The Strait has been closed or nearly closed since the United States launched its war with Iran.

That launch date was February 28th.  Today is July 13th.  We’re approaching five months of little to no oil getting through the Strait.

That’s so far resulted in 1+ billion fewer barrels in global circulation.

Here’s what we don’t seem to know:

We seem to be nowhere near an end to the war – or the Strait’s closure.  And even when we are told we were near an end to the closure?

Like, say, with the irrational exuberance on rampant display with June 14th’s “Memorandum of Understanding?”

Like, say, with the ridiculous number of times President Donald Trump has lied about being close to a peace deal (38 times – and that’s just the tally prior to the “Memorandum of Understanding”).

Most of us have been pretending that once the Strait reopens – everything will simply and immediately snap back to normal.  Heck, most of us still are pretending. (more…)